CHIBears
5-8
17
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph
38
MINVikings
8-5
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
3
7
17
Vikings
7
10
7
14
38
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
350
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.30
Passing Yards
199
221
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
17/20(85%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.1
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.96
Rushing Yards
94
129
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.49
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-10
Sack EPA
-12.72
-2.64
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
39
45
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
-26.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U