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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-8
17
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph
38
MINVikings
8-5
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
36°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
3
7
17
Vikings
7
10
7
14
38

Spread

MIN logo
-4

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
293
350
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.30
Passing Yards
199
221
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
17/20(85%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.1
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.96
Rushing Yards
94
129
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.49
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-10
Sack EPA
-12.72
-2.64
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
39
45
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-3.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
112.1
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17
12/13
1.8
64
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
10/25
1.9
64
11/01
-2.6
31
11/08
-0.7
47
11/15
-3.8
23
11/22
1.1
58
11/29
-2.8
30
12/06
-8.9
3
12/10
3.3
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
10
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
10
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
4
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
20
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
25
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
9
W
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
-17
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
W
U