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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-10
9
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
15°F
0
13
MINVikings
6-9
MIN logo
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
15°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
3
9
Vikings
3
0
7
3
13

Spread

CHI logo
+7

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
264
311
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
4.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.11
Passing Yards
165
190
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.04
Rushing Yards
99
121
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.27
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-19
Sack EPA
-1.94
-4.15
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-2.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.1
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
11/09
-4.7
22
11/16
7.2
89
11/23
-4.6
22
11/27
-1.5
39
12/04
7.9
91
12/15
-11.2
2
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Value
Ptile
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17
11/23
-0.1
49
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
12/14
1.5
61
12/21
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16

EPA

EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
2
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
13
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
8
W
W
U
11/27
-17
L
L
O
12/04
-13
L
L
O
12/15
-16
L
L
U
12/21
-6
L
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O