CHIBears
5-10
9
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
15°F
013
MINVikings
6-9
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
15°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
3
9
Vikings
3
0
7
3
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
311
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
4.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.11
Passing Yards
165
190
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.04
Rushing Yards
99
121
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
15
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.27
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-19
Sack EPA
-1.94
-4.15
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-2.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.1
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U