CHIBears
11-4
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
010
MINVikings
8-6
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
0
11
24
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
164
Total Plays
64
52
Yards / Play
5.2
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.28
Passing Yards
--
101
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.69
Rushing Yards
169
63
Rush Attempts
37
15
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
57%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-6.82
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
102
30
Penalty EPA
-12.85
-5.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model59.6%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.3
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
67.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U