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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
11-4
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
10
MINVikings
8-6
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
6
0
11
24
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

CHI logo
+6

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
334
164
Total Plays
64
52
Yards / Play
5.2
3.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.28
Passing Yards
--
101
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.69
Rushing Yards
169
63
Rush Attempts
37
15
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
7
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
57%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-6.82
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
102
30
Penalty EPA
-12.85
-5.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model59.8%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.3
Market Regression
+25.8
Final Difference
69.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Value
Ptile
09/30
15.2
99
10/14
7.0
90
10/21
4.9
79
10/28
2.7
68
11/04
-3.5
25
11/11
11.9
98
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
1.2
54
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
12/23
4.5
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
12
3
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
24
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-7
L
L
O
10/28
14
W
W
U
11/04
32
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
W
O
11/18
5
W
W
O
11/22
7
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
10
W
P
O
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
12/23
18
W
W
U