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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ 49ers week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-3
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
10 mph
17
SF49ers
5-2
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
0
3
14
31
49ers
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

CIN logo
+4

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
400
460
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
6.5
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.03
Passing Yards
266
347
Comp/Att
28/32(88%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.09
Rushing Yards
134
113
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
9
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-16.30
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-4.84
-5.87
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-6.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model71.2%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,687
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+40.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+24.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
156.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Value
Ptile
01/08
-0.5
48
01/15
0.9
58
01/22
6.0
89
01/29
-5.0
17
09/10
-8.0
8
09/17
1.3
58
09/25
-5.0
20
10/01
-4.9
20
10/08
4.6
79
10/15
-1.3
40
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
01/14
9.7
96
01/22
-0.3
50
01/29
-3.9
24
09/10
1.8
62
09/17
1.8
62
09/21
3.6
74
10/01
6.3
88
10/08
8.1
94
10/15
-6.4
12
10/23
-0.9
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bengals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
15
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
10
11
49ers Offense vs Bengals Defense
49ers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
5
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
8
RZ Efficiency
1
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
11
W
P
O
01/15
7
W
L
O
01/22
17
W
W
U
01/29
-3
L
L
U
09/10
-21
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
P
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
14
W
W
O
10/15
4
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
7
W
W
U
01/29
-24
L
L
U
09/10
23
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
L
O
09/21
18
W
W
U
10/01
19
W
W
O
10/08
32
W
W
O
10/15
-2
L
L
P
10/23
-5
L
L
U