CINBengals
3-3
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
10 mph
17
SF49ers
5-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
74°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
0
3
14
31
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
460
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
6.5
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.03
Passing Yards
266
347
Comp/Att
28/32(88%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.09
Rushing Yards
134
113
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
24
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
9
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-16.30
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-4.84
-5.87
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-6.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model71.1%
Spread Pick
49ers-4.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,686
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+40.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.6
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+24.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.7
Market Regression
+0.7
Final Difference
156.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
15
8
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
10
11
49ers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
8
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U