CINBengals
0-2
17
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
13 mph
21
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
83°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
7
10
17
Bills
8
6
0
7
21
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
418
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
5.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.11
Passing Yards
240
243
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.02
Rushing Yards
66
175
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.13
-10.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-2
Sack EPA
-3.20
-1.60
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
54
55
Penalty EPA
-8.08
-7.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+76.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
134.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
19
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
6
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
15
21
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U