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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ broncos week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-0
22
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
6 mph
24
DENBroncos
0-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
12
7
22
Broncos
7
3
7
7
24

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
382
318
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.00
Passing Yards
310
187
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.00
Rushing Yards
72
131
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
9%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.04
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-22
-8
Sack EPA
-2.99
-5.08
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
69
55
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-5.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
-38.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.3
23
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
10/10
6.6
89
10/17
-0.2
48
10/24
-4.1
24
10/31
3.4
71
11/14
9.6
97
11/22
-3.1
29
11/28
5.2
84
12/05
-10.1
4
12/12
-10.1
4
09/12
-3.1
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
19
26
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
21
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
25
19
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
10
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
26
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/02
-6
L
W
U
09/11
10
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/14
20
W
W
O
11/22
-21
L
L
U
11/28
-3
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
U
12/12
-30
L
L
O
12/19
-16
L
L
O
12/26
1
W
W
U
01/02
-5
L
P
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O