CINBengals
1-0
22
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
6 mph
24
DENBroncos
0-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
69°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
12
7
22
Broncos
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
318
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.00
Passing Yards
310
187
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.00
Rushing Yards
72
131
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
9%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.04
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-22
-8
Sack EPA
-2.99
-5.08
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
69
55
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
-39.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
Value
Ptile
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
26
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
21
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
25
19
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
26
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U