CINBengals
7-6
15
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
19 mph
10
DENBroncos
7-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
61°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
3
9
0
15
Broncos
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
249
292
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
4.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.11
Passing Yards
136
159
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.24
Rushing Yards
113
133
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.93
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-27
Sack EPA
-4.58
-4.18
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
38
60
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-1.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+50.4
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+13.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U