CINBengals
-
3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
024
CLEBrowns
-
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
3
0
3
Browns
0
10
3
11
24
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
142
352
Total Plays
54
73
Yards / Play
2.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.12
Passing Yards
67
144
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
2.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.62
-0.37
Rushing Yards
75
208
Rush Attempts
20
41
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
21
Passing 1st downs
3
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
13%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.11
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-10
Sack EPA
-6.00
-4.38
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
20
43
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
+29.1
Final Difference
-17.1
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U