CINBengals
2-1
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
15 mph
20
CLEBrowns
0-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
58°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
7
1
0
6
3
17
Browns
0
7
7
6
0
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
395
Total Plays
76
83
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.20
Passing Yards
221
249
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.15
Rushing Yards
154
146
Rush Attempts
30
33
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
28%
32%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
19
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.01
-16.42
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-20
Sack EPA
-2.54
-2.87
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-2.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
Browns+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,367
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
-93.8
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
1-2-7
O/U