CINBengals
2-1
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph
23
CLEBrowns
0-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
3
7
20
Browns
3
10
10
0
23
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
295
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
7.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
346
179
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.04
Rushing Yards
67
116
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.07
-2.03
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-5
Sack EPA
-8.17
-1.04
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
79
44
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-44
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.2
Home QB Adjustment
+60.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+35.5
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+60.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
26
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
24
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U