CINBengals
2-1
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
9 mph
17
CLEBrowns
1-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
3
0
6
Browns
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
336
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
4.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.01
Passing Yards
203
247
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.23
Rushing Yards
63
89
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.58
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-3
-22
Sack EPA
-4.75
-4.53
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
80
Penalty EPA
-2.80
-7.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-64.7
Home QB Adjustment
-60.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
+26.6
Final Difference
-100.4
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-60.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
14
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U