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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ browns week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-1
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
9 mph
17
CLEBrowns
1-2
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
3
0
6
Browns
7
0
3
7
17

Spread

CLE logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
266
336
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
4.2
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.01
Passing Yards
203
247
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.23
Rushing Yards
63
89
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.58
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-3
-22
Sack EPA
-4.75
-4.53
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
80
Penalty EPA
-2.80
-7.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-64.7
Home QB Adjustment
-60.9
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
+35.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75
09/22
-2.0
39
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-60.9
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.9
37
09/22
-3.7
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18

EPA

EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
20
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
13
16
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8

EPA

EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
14
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
22
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
23
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-13
L
L
U
09/15
-8
L
L
U
09/22
4
W
W
O