CINBengals
4-3
13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
66°F
9 mph
32
CLEBrowns
2-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
66°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
13
13
Browns
0
11
14
7
32
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
45
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
442
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.11
Passing Yards
193
268
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
11.7
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.39
Rushing Yards
36
174
Rush Attempts
10
45
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
40%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.97
-8.88
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-39
-10
Sack EPA
-12.49
-4.80
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
56
Penalty EPA
--
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-81.0
Home QB Adjustment
-55.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.7
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-55.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
7
15
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U