CINBengals
4-7
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
15 mph
10
CLEBrowns
0-12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
13
7
0
3
23
Browns
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
254
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.22
Passing Yards
147
85
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
12/28(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.43
Rushing Yards
213
169
Rush Attempts
38
22
Yards / Rush
5.6
7.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
53%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.92
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-33
-19
Sack EPA
-7.50
-3.83
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-4.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-186
Home nfelo
1,291
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-0.0
Final Difference
-149.4
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
12
32
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U