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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ browns week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
8-4
30
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
7 mph
0
CLEBrowns
7-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
10
3
7
30
Browns
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

CIN logo
+2

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
347
107
Total Plays
71
38
Yards / Play
4.9
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.62
Passing Yards
103
54
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.91
Rushing Yards
244
53
Rush Attempts
45
17
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.33
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
24
5
Passing 1st downs
6
2
Rushing 1st downs
16
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
-8.30
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-26
Sack EPA
-3.44
-5.82
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
41
68
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-5.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.1
Home QB Adjustment
+40.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
10/05
3.1
72
10/12
5.6
84
10/19
-7.7
8
10/26
3.8
76
11/02
-1.8
36
11/06
-15.6
0
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.7
55
11/30
-4.5
23
12/07
7.3
89
J. Manziel headshot

J. Manziel

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+40.2
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
23
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
23
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-4-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-26
L
L
O
10/12
0
T
L
O
10/19
-27
L
L
U
10/26
3
W
W
O
11/02
10
W
P
O
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/16
17
W
W
U
11/23
9
W
W
U
11/30
1
W
L
U
12/07
-21
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
1
W
P
O
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U
11/02
5
W
L
U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/23
2
W
W
O
11/30
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-1
L
W
U