CINBengals
8-4
30
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
7 mph
0
CLEBrowns
7-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
43°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
10
3
7
30
Browns
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
107
Total Plays
71
38
Yards / Play
4.9
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.62
Passing Yards
103
54
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
10/18(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
3.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.91
Rushing Yards
244
53
Rush Attempts
45
17
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.33
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
5
Passing 1st downs
6
2
Rushing 1st downs
16
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
-8.30
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-26
Sack EPA
-3.44
-5.82
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
41
68
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-5.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.1
Home QB Adjustment
+40.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
+5.6
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+40.2
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
22
RZ Efficiency
23
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-4-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U