nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ buccaneers week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CIN logo
CINBengals
7-3
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
2-9
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
7
0
14
Buccaneers
3
7
0
3
13

Spread

TB logo
+6

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
288
263
Total Plays
58
55
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.18
Passing Yards
176
188
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.14
Rushing Yards
112
75
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.12
-3.36
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-2
Sack EPA
-3.55
-0.98
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
73
94
Penalty EPA
-10.45
-11.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model61.4%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
-80.7
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
10/05
3.1
72
10/12
5.6
84
10/19
-7.7
8
10/26
3.8
76
11/02
-1.8
36
11/06
-15.6
0
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.7
55
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
-0.2
49
11/24
8.2
92
12/01
1.9
63
12/09
12.6
99
09/07
-2.2
34
09/14
2.1
66
09/18
-9.4
4
11/09
-0.8
44
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-6.8
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bengals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
25
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
18
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
10/05
-26
L
L
O
10/12
0
T
L
O
10/19
-27
L
L
U
10/26
3
W
W
O
11/02
10
W
P
O
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/16
17
W
W
U
11/23
9
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/05
-6
L
W
O
10/12
-31
L
L
O
10/26
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-5
L
W
U
11/09
-10
L
L
U
11/16
20
W
W
U
11/23
-8
L
L
U