CINBengals
7-3
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
2-9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
7
0
14
Buccaneers
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
263
Total Plays
58
55
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.18
Passing Yards
176
188
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.14
Rushing Yards
112
75
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.12
-3.36
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-2
Sack EPA
-3.55
-0.98
Penalties
10
13
Penalty Yards
73
94
Penalty EPA
-10.45
-11.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model61.2%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-11.0
Final Difference
-79.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
18
10
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
18
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U