CINBengals
1-3
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
020
ARICardinals
1-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
1
7
10
28
Cardinals
0
14
6
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
294
Total Plays
79
57
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.35
Passing Yards
287
152
Comp/Att
36/46(78%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.49
Rushing Yards
93
142
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.69
-14.78
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-4.52
-9.16
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
16
Penalty EPA
--
-1.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+73.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+23.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
+21.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
15
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U