CINBengals
8-1
31
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
034
ARICardinals
7-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
17
31
Cardinals
0
7
21
6
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
383
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
5.3
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.18
Passing Yards
278
301
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.38
Rushing Yards
99
82
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
38%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-5.97
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-37
-16
Sack EPA
-9.07
-3.32
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
108
40
Penalty EPA
-13.41
-6.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+105.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
+22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
+4.1
Final Difference
123.6
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
5
15
Cardinals Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
2
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
3
5
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
28
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U