CINBengals
6-5
20
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
66°F
14 mph
13
LACChargers
4-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
66°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
10
20
Chargers
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
297
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.23
Passing Yards
211
251
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.26
-0.22
Rushing Yards
128
46
Rush Attempts
32
11
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.81
-7.65
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
-1.66
-9.61
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
55
55
Penalty EPA
-4.93
-8.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model55.8%
Spread Pick
Chargers-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
40.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
8
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
18
32
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
14
17
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U