CINBengals
7-4
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
77°F
5 mph
10
LACChargers
5-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
77°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
7
3
17
Chargers
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
334
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
243
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.07
Rushing Yards
164
91
Rush Attempts
38
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.69
-9.22
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.83
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
45
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-2.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
-16.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U