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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ chargers week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CIN logo
CINBengals
9-4
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
8 mph
27
LACChargers
10-3
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
0
11
24
Chargers
7
7
10
3
27

Spread

CIN logo
+7

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
409
366
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.15
Passing Yards
293
296
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.25
Rushing Yards
116
70
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-5.37
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-12
Sack EPA
-3.72
-3.02
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
202.6
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23
12/06
-5.9
15
12/13
-1.8
39
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Value
Ptile
10/04
3.7
74
10/19
-0.7
46
10/25
7.0
89
11/01
0.5
54
11/08
1.7
61
11/15
5.4
84
11/22
2.7
67
11/29
7.6
91
12/06
7.4
91
12/13
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21

EPA

EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
28
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
10
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U
12/06
10
W
L
U
12/13
-20
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-10
L
L
O
10/19
-11
L
L
O
10/25
30
W
W
P
11/01
8
W
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
29
W
W
U
11/29
29
W
W
O
12/06
7
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U