CINBengals
9-4
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
8 mph
27
LACChargers
10-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
0
11
24
Chargers
7
7
10
3
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
366
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.15
Passing Yards
293
296
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.25
Rushing Yards
116
70
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.09
-5.37
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-21
-12
Sack EPA
-3.72
-3.02
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
55
30
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
Chargers-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
202.5
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
12
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
25
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
28
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U