CINBengals
0-1
25
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
8 mph
26
KCChiefs
1-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
13
6
3
25
Chiefs
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
286
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
246
137
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.37
Rushing Yards
74
149
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.76
-11.65
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-8.89
-1.95
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
79
44
Penalty EPA
-8.39
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+71.5
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
14
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-6-2
O/U