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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ chiefs week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
0-1
25
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
8 mph
26
KCChiefs
1-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
89°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
13
6
3
25
Chiefs
3
7
7
3
20

Spread

CIN logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
320
286
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
246
137
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.37
Rushing Yards
74
149
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.76
-11.65
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-8.89
-1.95
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
79
44
Penalty EPA
-8.39
-3.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,654
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+71.3
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
09/17
1.3
58
09/25
-5.0
20
10/01
-4.9
20
10/08
4.6
79
10/15
-1.3
40
10/29
10.2
98
11/05
7.7
92
11/12
-0.0
49
11/16
-2.0
34
09/08
-2.3
32
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
Value
Ptile
12/03
-1.8
38
12/10
0.3
51
12/17
0.1
50
12/25
-1.9
36
12/31
1.2
56
01/13
7.6
92
01/21
6.5
89
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.4
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
19
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
19

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
12
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
21
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-14
L
L
O
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/04
3
W
W
O
12/10
20
W
W
O
12/16
3
W
P
O
12/23
-23
L
L
O
12/31
-8
L
L
U
01/07
17
W
W
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
P
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
01/07
1
W
W
U
01/13
19
W
W
U
01/21
3
W
W
O
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P