CINBengals
3-1
0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
4-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
0
0
Colts
3
7
7
10
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
135
506
Total Plays
54
78
Yards / Play
2.5
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.07
Passing Yards
103
335
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.65
+0.23
Rushing Yards
32
171
Rush Attempts
12
34
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
27
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.99
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-5.98
-3.04
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
20
57
Penalty EPA
-1.40
-4.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+31.0
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
3
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
30
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U