CINBengals
2-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
5-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
0
7
17
Colts
4
10
0
3
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
256
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.12
Passing Yards
269
180
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.03
Rushing Yards
72
76
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-24.85
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-5
Sack EPA
-3.13
-0.89
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
38
45
Penalty EPA
-3.25
-6.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
12
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
28
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
25
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
17
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U