CINBengals
10-5
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
026
INDColts
11-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
0
10
Colts
7
6
10
3
26
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
482
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
4.3
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
144
368
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.22
Rushing Yards
110
114
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.08
-3.00
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-6.79
-0.97
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
45
66
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
-29.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
3
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
30
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U