CINBengals
6-2
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
8 mph
22
MIADolphins
3-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
7
10
20
Dolphins
0
10
1
3
14
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
42
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
465
345
Total Plays
93
61
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
302
188
Comp/Att
32/53(60%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
163
157
Rush Attempts
35
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
17
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-20.60
-3.90
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-36
-20
Sack EPA
-9.44
-2.81
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
63
25
Penalty EPA
-0.29
-3.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+29.1
Market Regression
-34.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
24
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U