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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ dolphins week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
6-2
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
8 mph
22
MIADolphins
3-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
7
10
20
Dolphins
0
10
1
3
14

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

PUSH
42
P

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
465
345
Total Plays
93
61
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
302
188
Comp/Att
32/53(60%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.02
Rushing Yards
163
157
Rush Attempts
35
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
17
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-20.60
-3.90
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-36
-20
Sack EPA
-9.44
-2.81
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
63
25
Penalty EPA
-0.29
-3.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-43.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+29.1
Market Regression
-32.0
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75
09/22
-2.0
39
09/29
-4.7
20
10/06
-2.9
33
10/13
4.8
83
10/20
9.5
95
10/27
8.6
93
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Value
Ptile
12/16
6.9
89
12/23
0.1
50
12/30
-9.1
4
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
20
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
24
30
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
-11
L
L
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
3
W
L
O
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
40
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
21
W
W
U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U