CINBengals
2-3
32
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
039
ATLFalcons
4-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
16
7
26
Falcons
7
17
0
15
39
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
454
Total Plays
76
64
Yards / Play
6.2
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.27
Passing Yards
385
--
Comp/Att
36/52(69%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.13
Rushing Yards
84
153
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
22
Passing 1st downs
23
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.47
-12.16
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-2.71
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
36
41
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
26
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Falcons Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U