CINBengals
1-4
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
2 mph
7
NYGGiants
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
3
7
17
Giants
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
309
Total Plays
52
74
Yards / Play
5.8
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.16
Passing Yards
183
190
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
22/41(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.37
Rushing Yards
121
119
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.22
-6.10
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-15
Sack EPA
-5.03
-2.04
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
67
--
Penalty EPA
-9.51
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
5
29
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
9
31
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
16
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
19
9
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U