CINBengals
3-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
2 mph
21
NYGGiants
5-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
10
0
20
Giants
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
264
351
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.12
Passing Yards
186
229
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.14
Rushing Yards
78
122
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
18%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.26
-7.78
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-3.77
-3.84
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
60
15
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-2.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+12.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-11.4
Final Difference
-17.1
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
21
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-5-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U