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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ giants week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-4
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
2 mph
21
NYGGiants
5-3
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
10
0
20
Giants
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

NYG logo
0

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
264
351
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.12
Passing Yards
186
229
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.14
Rushing Yards
78
122
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
18%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.26
-7.78
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-3.77
-3.84
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
60
15
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-2.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+12.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.2
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
-16.6
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
5.1
82
12/13
-7.2
6
09/11
-1.0
40
09/18
3.9
77
09/25
-2.2
33
09/29
1.8
63
10/09
3.3
74
10/16
4.3
80
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
1.8
63
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
10/03
-1.2
39
10/09
-4.0
19
10/16
6.5
88
10/23
-1.3
38
11/06
1.8
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Bengals logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
12
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
5
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Giants logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
21

EPA

EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
19
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-5-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/09
-2
L
P
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-8
L
L
U
09/25
-12
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
U
10/09
-14
L
L
U
10/16
-18
L
L
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
0
T
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
P
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
W
O