CINBengals
2-1
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
7 mph
10
JAXJaguars
1-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
14
0
10
27
Jaguars
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
212
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
143
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.33
Rushing Yards
138
69
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
43%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.73
-5.22
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-5.53
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
50
37
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+8.5
Final Difference
8.5
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
23
26
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
2-6-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U