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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ jaguars week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-1
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
7 mph
10
JAXJaguars
1-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
14
0
10
27
Jaguars
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

CIN logo
+1

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
382
212
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
143
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.33
Rushing Yards
138
69
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
43%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.73
-5.22
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-5.53
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
50
37
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-6.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
+8.8
Final Difference
8.8
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
4.2
77
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
12/18
-3.7
27
12/24
2.8
72
01/01
0.2
53
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
5.9
87
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
-0.7
47
11/27
-10.5
1
12/05
-1.1
44
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
12/24
-5.6
16
01/01
-6.4
12
09/09
1.2
58
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
-2.1
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
23
26
EPA / Rush
8
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14

EPA

EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
27
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
2-6-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/18
7
W
P
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
7
W
P
O
09/23
7
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
12/24
-6
L
W
O
01/01
6
W
W
U
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
U