CINBengals
2-2
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
15 mph
20
JAXJaguars
1-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
6
0
11
24
Jaguars
7
6
0
7
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
296
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.31
Passing Yards
162
200
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.24
Rushing Yards
77
96
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-11.96
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-21
Sack EPA
-2.93
-3.93
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.9
Market Regression
-14.8
Final Difference
7.4
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
21
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U