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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ jaguars week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-2
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
15 mph
20
JAXJaguars
1-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
6
0
11
24
Jaguars
7
6
0
7
20

Spread

CIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
239
296
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
3.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.31
Passing Yards
162
200
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.24
Rushing Yards
77
96
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
13
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-11.96
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-21
Sack EPA
-2.93
-3.93
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.9
Market Regression
-14.6
Final Difference
7.7
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.3
23
09/18
5.4
84
09/25
-6.9
10
10/02
-1.1
44
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
09/25
-5.1
18
10/02
-7.5
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
21
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
12

EPA

EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
20
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/02
-6
L
W
U
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/18
-2
L
W
O
09/25
-5
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
12/19
-10
L
L
O
12/26
-3
L
L
U
01/02
-17
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
-29
L
L
U
09/25
-6
L
L
U
10/02
-13
L
L
U