CINBengals
3-4
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
12 mph
23
JAXJaguars
4-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
0
7
Jaguars
3
10
3
1
17
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
148
408
Total Plays
37
78
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.10
Passing Yards
119
--
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.39
Rushing Yards
29
149
Rush Attempts
17
40
Yards / Rush
1.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
26
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
13%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
12
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.29
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.82
--
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
77
50
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-4.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+92.1
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.0
Market Regression
+34.2
Final Difference
123.0
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
28
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
21
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U