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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ jaguars week 9, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-4
7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
12 mph
23
JAXJaguars
4-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
78°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
0
7
Jaguars
3
10
3
1
17

Spread

JAX logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
148
408
Total Plays
37
78
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.10
Passing Yards
119
--
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.39
Rushing Yards
29
149
Rush Attempts
17
40
Yards / Rush
1.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
8
26
Passing 1st downs
5
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
13%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
12
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.29
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.82
--
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
77
50
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-4.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+93.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.0
Market Regression
+34.7
Final Difference
123.5
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Value
Ptile
12/18
-2.4
31
12/24
-0.7
43
01/01
0.3
51
09/10
-15.7
0
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
10/08
-6.3
14
10/15
-3.2
30
10/22
3.9
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
28
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
29
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
21
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
30

EPA

EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
6
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
16
RZ Efficiency
1
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/08
21
W
W
U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
10/22
27
W
W
U