CINBengals
4-2
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
4-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
10
3
27
Lions
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
434
Total Plays
53
76
Yards / Play
7.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.12
Passing Yards
364
--
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
28/51(55%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.73
+0.41
Rushing Yards
57
77
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
68%
3rd Down Conversions
4
13
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.05
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-4.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
+17.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
12
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
31
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
24
27
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
12
3
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
20
8
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U