CINBengals
0-1
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph
24
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
7
3
31
Packers
14
1
0
3
18
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
311
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.11
Passing Yards
168
222
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
151
89
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
64%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.47
-4.81
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-39
Sack EPA
-2.27
-6.51
Penalties
13
11
Penalty Yards
100
76
Penalty EPA
-12.13
-13.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
5
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
7
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U