nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ packers week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CIN logo
CINBengals
0-1
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph
24
GBPackers
1-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
68°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
7
3
31
Packers
14
1
0
3
18

Spread

CIN logo
+8

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
319
311
Total Plays
59
63
Yards / Play
5.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.11
Passing Yards
168
222
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
151
89
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
64%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.47
-4.81
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-17
-39
Sack EPA
-2.27
-6.51
Penalties
13
11
Penalty Yards
100
76
Penalty EPA
-12.13
-13.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
12/02
-4.6
22
12/09
-2.4
34
12/15
3.1
72
12/23
-4.8
19
12/30
8.3
93
09/07
-7.9
6
09/14
-5.3
13
09/21
1.9
65
10/05
0.1
53
09/13
-4.9
21
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-0.6
47
11/09
-5.3
13
11/16
4.8
83
11/24
-0.4
50
11/30
6.4
88
12/07
2.1
66
12/14
0.5
55
12/22
3.1
73
12/28
3.5
75
09/13
-2.5
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Bengals logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Packers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
8

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
5
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
7
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-29
L
L
P
11/02
2
W
W
P
11/16
0
T
W
P
11/20
-17
L
L
P
11/30
-31
L
L
P
12/07
-32
L
L
P
12/14
7
W
W
P
12/21
14
W
W
P
12/28
10
W
W
P
09/13
-5
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-3
L
W
P
11/09
-1
L
W
P
11/16
34
W
W
P
11/24
-22
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
L
P
12/22
-3
L
W
P
12/28
10
W
L
P
09/13
6
W
W
U