CINBengals
0-2
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
89°F
8 mph
27
GBPackers
1-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
89°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
7
8
0
3
0
18
Packers
7
0
7
10
3
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
344
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
--
Passing Yards
191
280
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.12
Rushing Yards
110
64
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.83
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-21
-33
Sack EPA
-5.88
-6.91
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
68
33
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-5.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+30.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-20.5
Market Regression
-64.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
32
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
28
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
23
10
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U