CINBengals
0-3
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
6 mph
24
CARPanthers
1-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
10
3
34
Panthers
0
14
7
3
24
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
375
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.00
Rushing Yards
141
155
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.14
-5.41
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
39
37
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-4.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+60.1
Home QB Adjustment
+63.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+63.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
30
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
14
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
20
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U