CINBengals
-
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
38
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
14
7
24
Patriots
10
8
7
7
32
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
376
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.30
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.41
Rushing Yards
87
118
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
21
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.53
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-2.03
--
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
5
30
Penalty EPA
-3.03
-4.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model71.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots-5.0
Expected Value
+4.9%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
159.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
2
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U