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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ patriots week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
-
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
38
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
14
7
24
Patriots
10
8
7
7
32

Spread

NE logo
-5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
428
376
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.30
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.41
Rushing Yards
87
118
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
21
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.53
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-2.03
--
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
5
30
Penalty EPA
-3.03
-4.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model71.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.9%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
160.3
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
11/22
0.8
55
11/29
-4.3
23
12/06
-5.9
15
12/13
-1.8
39
12/20
3.7
73
12/27
-0.9
45
01/03
-7.9
8
01/09
-4.4
23
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
8.1
92
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36
01/10
-6.6
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bengals logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
31
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Patriots logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19

EPA

EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
2
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
9
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
9
W
L
U
12/06
10
W
L
U
12/13
-20
L
L
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
7
W
L
U
01/03
-37
L
L
O
01/09
-10
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
-1
L
P
O
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
01/10
-19
L
L
O