CIN logo
CIN
3-0
17
43
NE
2-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
14
0
17
Patriots
14
6
8
9
37

Spread

NE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
320
505
Total Plays
48
82
Yards / Play
6.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.14
Passing Yards
241
285
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.22
Rushing Yards
79
220
Rush Attempts
18
46
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-15.18
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.22
-1.40
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
37
114
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-10.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-26.8
Final Difference
-26.8
Model Spread
+1.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bengals logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
3
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
18
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Patriots logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
5
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
5
7