CINBengals
3-0
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
2 mph
43
NEPatriots
2-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
14
0
17
Patriots
14
6
8
9
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
505
Total Plays
48
82
Yards / Play
6.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.14
Passing Yards
241
285
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.22
Rushing Yards
79
220
Rush Attempts
18
46
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-15.18
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.22
-1.40
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
37
114
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-10.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
Patriots+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-26.8
Final Difference
-26.8
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
18
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
5
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U