nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ patriots week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CIN logo
CINBengals
3-0
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
2 mph
43
NEPatriots
2-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
47°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
14
0
17
Patriots
14
6
8
9
37

Spread

NE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
320
505
Total Plays
48
82
Yards / Play
6.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.14
Passing Yards
241
285
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.22
Rushing Yards
79
220
Rush Attempts
18
46
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-15.18
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.22
-1.40
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
37
114
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-10.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.8
Home QB Adjustment
-16.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-27.9
Final Difference
-27.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
11/17
-4.7
20
12/01
-1.6
41
12/08
9.3
95
12/15
2.7
69
12/22
9.2
94
12/29
0.8
55
01/05
-2.3
37
09/07
4.6
80
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Value
Ptile
12/08
2.6
68
12/15
5.3
84
12/22
-1.9
40
12/29
-2.9
33
01/11
-4.4
22
01/19
4.1
78
09/07
-3.8
27
09/14
-1.4
40
09/21
-1.4
41
09/29
-6.3
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bengals logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
3
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
18
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Patriots logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
5
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
5
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
28
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-17
L
L
U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
1
W
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
12/22
34
W
W
O
12/29
14
W
W
O
01/11
21
W
W
O
01/19
-10
L
L
U
09/07
-13
L
L
O
09/14
23
W
W
U
09/21
7
W
L
U
09/29
-27
L
L
O