CINBengals
-
33
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
73°F
9 mph
13
OAKRaiders
-
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
17
9
0
33
Raiders
0
0
0
13
13
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
246
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
6.1
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
183
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
30/44(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.08
Rushing Yards
127
63
Rush Attempts
31
16
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.17
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-7.25
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
32
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-2.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
23
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U