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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ raiders week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
7-2
17
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
8 mph
20
OAKRaiders
2-7
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
3
0
17
Raiders
0
7
3
10
20

Spread

OAK logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
36

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
348
275
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.08
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
17/34(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.12
Rushing Yards
177
92
Rush Attempts
43
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.59
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-15.80
-14.60
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-36
--
Sack EPA
-10.60
--
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-5.74
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market77.4%
Model71.6%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.7%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,329
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-36.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+13.6
Final Difference
-160.5
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.1
53
09/13
-4.9
21
09/20
1.9
63
09/27
-0.8
45
10/04
-0.3
47
10/11
1.9
63
10/18
1.2
57
10/25
11.6
98
11/08
2.5
66
11/15
-2.0
38
B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
-4.1
23
10/29
-5.5
15
11/05
-0.6
47
11/13
-4.5
20
11/19
1.2
58
11/23
-5.3
17
12/03
-9.3
4
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bengals logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
24
25
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
16
27
EPA / Rush
12
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
3
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Raiders logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
30
10
EPA / Rush
22
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
22
11
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
29
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
10
W
W
P
09/13
-5
L
L
U
09/20
7
W
W
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-11
L
L
U
10/25
35
W
W
O
11/08
10
W
W
U
11/15
6
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U