CINBengals
0-9
10
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
76°F
13 mph
17
OAKRaiders
5-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
76°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
3
0
10
Raiders
0
14
0
3
17
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
386
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
4.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.07
Passing Yards
73
273
Comp/Att
13/31(42%)
25/29(86%)
Yards / Pass
2.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.24
Rushing Yards
173
113
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
7.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.84
-9.68
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-42
-19
Sack EPA
-10.55
-6.17
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
40
42
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-6.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+274
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,325
Home Field
+67.6
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+17.8
Net QB Adjustment
+70.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
-54.4
Market Regression
+64.5
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
R. Finley
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-54.4
Value
Ptile
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
27
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
22
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U