CINBengals
5-4
32
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
013
OAKRaiders
5-4
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
7
3
19
32
Raiders
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
278
Total Plays
70
47
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.33
Passing Yards
129
206
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.33
Rushing Yards
159
72
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.29
-11.81
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-8.83
-7.97
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-12.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model49.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+29.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
4.2
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
22
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U