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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ raiders week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-4
32
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
13
OAKRaiders
5-4
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
7
3
19
32
Raiders
3
3
0
7
13

Spread

CIN logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
288
278
Total Plays
70
47
Yards / Play
4.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.33
Passing Yards
129
206
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.33
Rushing Yards
159
72
Rush Attempts
38
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.29
-11.81
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-8.83
-7.97
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-12.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model49.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+29.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.9
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
3.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
11/22
-1.9
30
09/12
-0.3
51
09/19
-8.0
8
09/26
2.8
74
09/30
5.3
85
10/10
-1.1
45
10/17
0.8
59
10/24
6.1
88
10/31
-1.8
40
11/07
-7.3
10
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
01/03
-1.1
37
09/13
3.6
79
09/19
8.7
94
09/26
0.9
61
10/04
-3.9
25
10/10
-5.4
17
10/17
4.0
80
10/24
7.2
91
11/07
-1.4
42
11/14
0.7
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bengals logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
22
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Raiders logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7

EPA

EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
29
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-35
L
L
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/19
-3
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
U
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
23
W
W
U
10/24
24
W
W
O
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-25
L
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
1
W
L
O
09/13
6
W
W
O
09/19
9
W
W
U
09/26
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/17
10
W
W
O
10/24
11
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
U
11/14
-27
L
L
O