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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ rams week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
7-6
20
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
13
LARRams
2-11
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
10
7
20
Rams
0
6
0
7
13

Spread

CIN logo
LAR logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
283
305
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
4.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.28
Passing Yards
173
210
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.07
Rushing Yards
110
95
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
27%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.71
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-1.24
-6.51
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
101
99
Penalty EPA
-10.21
-17.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model69.7%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,329
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
-144.7
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
10/02
-1.1
44
10/09
-1.5
41
10/16
4.6
80
10/30
-3.0
32
11/06
2.4
69
11/13
-2.4
34
11/20
0.4
55
11/27
4.2
77
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
-4.8
20
11/04
1.3
60
11/18
-4.1
24
11/22
-7.4
7
12/02
-4.0
25
12/09
-3.6
28
12/16
-6.2
10
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Rams Defense
Bengals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
21
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
19
23
Fumbles / Game
4
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Rams Offense vs Bengals Defense
Rams logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
32
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
27
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
8
RZ Efficiency
31
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
10
W
W
O
10/16
10
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
P
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-21
L
L
U
10/23
-27
L
L
U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
1
W
W
U
11/20
-17
L
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/04
-26
L
L
U
12/12
-17
L
L
O