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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
-
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
8 mph
16
BALRavens
-
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
9
0
8
23
Ravens
0
0
7
9
16

Spread

CIN logo
+1

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
382
423
Total Plays
65
86
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
329
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
35/62(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.08
Rushing Yards
79
94
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.50
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-6.20
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
45
29
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-3.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
-7.0
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
10/27
8.6
93
10/31
-6.9
11
11/10
-8.5
6
11/17
-4.7
20
12/01
-1.6
41
12/08
9.3
95
12/15
2.7
69
12/22
9.2
94
12/29
0.8
55
01/05
-2.3
37
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
10/20
3.9
76
11/03
-2.1
38
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-6.7
12
11/24
-2.5
36
11/28
2.1
65
12/08
-3.0
31
12/16
-1.6
41
12/22
-5.7
16
12/29
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
19
21
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20

EPA

EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
13
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
14
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
40
W
W
O
10/31
-2
L
L
P
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
28
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-17
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
2
W
L
O
12/08
3
W
L
O
12/16
2
W
W
U
12/22
-34
L
L
O
12/29
-17
L
L
O