CINBengals
-
23
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
8 mph
16
BALRavens
-
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
9
0
8
23
Ravens
0
0
7
9
16
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
423
Total Plays
65
86
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
329
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
35/62(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.08
Rushing Yards
79
94
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.50
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-6.20
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
45
29
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-3.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model48.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-8.3
Final Difference
-7.5
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
19
21
Fumbles / Game
18
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
14
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U