CINBengals
2-0
28
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
12 mph
24
BALRavens
0-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
14
28
Ravens
0
0
7
11
18
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
398
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
7.0
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.10
Passing Yards
372
--
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
32/49(65%)
Yards / Pass
11.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.13
Rushing Yards
86
36
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.57
-5.42
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-9.76
--
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
67
116
Penalty EPA
-9.08
-12.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U