CINBengals
3-1
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
3 mph
14
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
7
7
17
Ravens
0
1
0
7
8
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
257
Total Plays
66
51
Yards / Play
6.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.09
Passing Yards
261
175
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.02
Rushing Yards
142
82
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.92
-3.51
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-1.56
-1.51
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
39
76
Penalty EPA
-4.34
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
4
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
21
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-1-6
O/U