CINBengals
0-5
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
7 mph
23
BALRavens
3-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
64°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
0
7
17
Ravens
14
3
3
3
23
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
497
Total Plays
55
77
Yards / Play
4.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.14
Passing Yards
217
228
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.08
Rushing Yards
33
269
Rush Attempts
14
43
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
15
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.91
-3.31
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-2.25
-0.84
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
20
81
Penalty EPA
-3.21
-9.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+29.6
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
-24.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
26
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
25
7
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
3
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
23
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
10
21
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U