CINBengals
6-3
24
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
7 mph
31
BALRavens
6-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
7
10
24
Ravens
0
14
10
7
31
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
483
373
Total Plays
78
56
Yards / Play
6.2
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
364
268
Comp/Att
24/46(52%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.24
Rushing Yards
119
105
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.81
-3.09
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-2
Sack EPA
-3.64
-2.07
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
43
69
Penalty EPA
-5.86
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
-42.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
16
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
18
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
17
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U