CINBengals
5-4
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
1 mph
34
BALRavens
7-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
56°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
7
3
7
20
Ravens
7
14
6
7
34
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
405
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.21
Passing Yards
136
248
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.32
Rushing Yards
136
157
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-33
-16
Sack EPA
-7.10
-4.60
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
78
110
Penalty EPA
-6.70
-11.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
2
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
20
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
30
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U