CINBengals
3-6
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
12 mph
19
BALRavens
5-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
50°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
6
3
12
Ravens
10
6
0
3
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
311
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
4.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.08
Passing Yards
261
219
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.10
Rushing Yards
64
92
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.47
-5.47
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-15
Sack EPA
-6.47
-5.90
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
69
Penalty EPA
--
-11.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
7
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U