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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ saints week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
10
NOSaints
4-5
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
6
7
7
27
Saints
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

CIN logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
405
330
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
6.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.01
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
33/41(80%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.98
+0.21
Rushing Yards
186
75
Rush Attempts
36
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
69%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.37
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.28
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
33
34
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-5.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
+66.5
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Value
Ptile
01/05
-2.3
37
09/07
4.6
80
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
10/05
3.1
72
10/12
5.6
84
10/19
-7.7
8
10/26
3.8
76
11/02
-1.8
36
11/06
-15.6
0
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84
10/05
0.4
52
10/19
5.8
84
10/26
9.1
95
10/30
0.0
49
11/09
1.3
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Bengals logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
3
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Saints logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20

EPA

EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
7
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
25
6
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
7
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-4-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-17
L
L
U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
10/05
-26
L
L
O
10/12
0
T
L
O
10/19
-27
L
L
U
10/26
3
W
W
O
11/02
10
W
P
O
11/06
-21
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
6
W
L
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
21
W
W
O
10/30
18
W
W
U
11/09
-3
L
L
O