CINBengals
5-3
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
010
NOSaints
4-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
6
7
7
27
Saints
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
330
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
6.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.01
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
33/41(80%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.98
+0.21
Rushing Yards
186
75
Rush Attempts
36
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
69%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.37
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.28
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
33
34
Penalty EPA
-3.64
-5.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
+66.5
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Saints Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
25
6
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-4-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U